Monday, April 14, 2008

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I hate to get all emotional here, but...

I just wanted to thank everyone for being sooooooo incredibly nice to me-- you know who you are! Everything from the User of the Year nomination, my anxiety post, happy birthday thread (got me there! lol. ), to the User of the Month thread, pictures posts, and possibly a few others I'm neglecting... Not to mention all the help you guys have provided not only for myself when I needed it, but for the rest of A4F as well. I am still blown away at the amount of support and overall kindness A4F exudes. I never expected so much from a forum, such a warm environment.

I know my time is limited for User of the Month, but it's been really awesome!! Thanks again to all my voters and for the abundance of congrats messages. I know RocksJa has the most votes so far, and I hope he gets it this month; his chances are looking good!! He's a cool guy, instantly likeable. Always has been constructive when helping users, and just there when you need him most. I remember our first conversation, too. We chatted for 5 hours on AIM, lol, but it was fun!! I'm ready to hand over the crown (or should I say ribbon? lol) to RocksJa, or whoever wins for this month. It's just exciting to have become the User of the Month, and the first one at that!! I wish everyone for the month of March the best of luck!!

I definitely have to agree with others on how addictive A4F is...you always return even after you leave!


k, mission accomplished. *breaks out the Kleenex... sniff sniff* I knew this would happen! j.k lol.

$2 fun - this made me laugh

I really want to try this, but the catch is you would have to have someone then can vouch that a $2 is real.

QUOTE The $2 Bill. Everyone should start carrying them!

I am STILL laughing!! I think we need to quit saving our $2 bills and bring them out in public. The younger generation doesn't know they exist.

On my way home from work, I stopped at Taco Bell for a quick bite to eat. In my billfold are a $50 bill and a $2 bill. I figure that with a $2 bill, I can get something to eat and not have to worry about anyone getting irritated at me for trying to break a $50 bill.

Me: "Hi, I'd like one seven-layer burrito please, to go."

Server: "That'll be $1.04. Eat in?"

Me: "No, it's to go." At this point, I open my billfold and hand him the $2 bill. He looks at it kind of funny.

Server: "Uh, hang on a sec, I'll be right back."

He goes to talk to his manager, who is still within my earshot. The following conversation occurs between the two of them:

Server: "Hey, you ever see a $2 bill?"

Manager: "No. A what?"

Server: "A $2 bill. This guy just gave it to me."

Manager: "Ask for something else. There's no such thing as a $2 bill."

Server: "Yeah, thought so."

He comes back to me and says, "We don't take these Do you have anything else?"

Me: "Just this fifty. You don't take $2 bills? Why?"

Server: "I don't know."

Me: "See here where it says legal tender?"

Server: "Yeah."

Me: "So, why won't you take it?"

Server: "Well, hang on a sec."

He goes back to his manager, who has been watching me like I'm a shoplifter, and says to him, "He says I have to take it."

Manager: "Doesn't he have anything else?"

Server: "Yeah, a fifty. I'll get it and you can open the safe and get change "

Manager: "I'm not opening the safe with him in here."
Server: "What should I do?"

Manager: "Tell him to come back later when he has real money."

Server: "I can't tell him that! You tell him."

Manager: "Just tell him."

Server: "No way! This is weird. I'm going in back."

The manager approaches me and says, "I'm sorry, but we don't take big bills this time of night."

Me: "It's only seven o'clock! Well then, here's a two dollar bill."

Manager: "We don't take those, either."

Me: "Why not?"

Manager: "I think you know why."

Me: "No really, tell me why."

Manager: "Please leave before I call mall security."

Me: "Excuse me?"

Manager: "Please leave before I call mall security."

Me: "What on earth for?"

Manager: "Please, sir."

Me: "Uh, go ahead, call them."

Manager: "Would you please just leave?"

Me: "No."

Manager: "Fine -- have it your way then."

Me: "Hey, that's Burger King, isn't it?"

At this point, he backs away from me and calls mall security on the phone around the corner. I have two people staring at me from the dining area, and I begin laughing out loud, just for effect. A few minutes later this 45-year-oldish guy
Comes in.

Guard: "Yeah, Mike, what's up?"

Manager (whispering): "This guy is trying to give me some (pause) funny money."


Guard: "No kidding! What?"

Manager: "Get this .. A two dollar bill."

Guard (incredulous): "Why would a guy fake a two dollar bill?"

Manager: "I don't know. He's kinda weird. He says the only other thing he has is a fifty."

Guard: "Oh, so the fifty's fake!"

Manager: "No, the two dollar bill is."

Guard: "Why would he fake a two dollar bill?"

Manager: "I don't know! Can you talk to him, and get him out of here?"

Guard: "Yeah."

Security Guard walks over to me and......

Guard: "Mike here tells me you have some fake bills you're trying to use."

Me: "Uh, no."

Guard: "Lemme see 'em."

Me: "Why?"

Guard: "Do you want me to get the cops in here?"

At this point I am ready to say, "Sure, please!" but I want to eat, so I say "I'm just trying to buy a burrito and pay for it with this two dollar bill.

I put the bill up near his face, and he flinches like I'm taking a swing at him. He takes the bill, turns it over a few times in his hands, and says, "Hey, Mike, what's wrong with this bill?"

Manager: "It's fake."

Guard: "It doesn't look fake to me."

Manager: "But it's a two dollar bill."

Guard: "Yeah?"

Manager: "Well, there's no such thing, is there?"

The security guard and I both look at him like he's an idiot, and it dawns on the guy that he has no clue.

So, it turns out that my burrito was free, and he threw in a small drink and some of those cinnamon thingies, too.

Made me want to get a whole stack of two dollar bills just to see what happens when I try to buy stuff. If I got the right group of people, I could probably end up in jail. You get free food there, too.
http://www.whatistruth.info/silly1/7.html

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Beneficial indoor plants

No one plant can reduce all contaminants, however, so a variety of plants is required to remove a range of chemicals. It is suggested that one or two plants per 10 square metres is usually sufficient to reduce indoor pollution.

Formaldehyde
Sources: foam insulation, plywood, clothes, carpeting, furniture, paper goods, household cleaners.

Suitable plants:

philodendron



spider plant



golden pothos



chrysanthemum


Sansvieria (snake plant).



Benzene
Sources: tobacco smoke, petrol, synthetic fibres, plastics, inks, oils, detergents, rubber.

Suitable plants:

Hedera helix (English ivy) (How to propagate ivy)



Dracaena marginata



chrysanthemum



gerbera (How to grow gerberas indoors)



Spathyphyllum (peace lily).



Trichloroethylene
Sources: dry cleaning, inks, paints, varnishes, lacquers, adhesives.

Suitable plants: gerbera, chrysanthemum, Spathyphyllum (peace lily), Dracaena marginata.



http://home.vicnet.net.au/~mecfs/general/plants.html
Images found on google images search, I own none of them, don't sue

when i am an old woman i shall wear purple

WARNING
by Jenny Joseph

When I am an old woman I shall wear purple
With a red hat which doesn't go, and doesn't suit me.
And I shall spend my pension on brandy and summer gloves
And satin sandals, and say we've no money for butter.
I shall sit down on the pavement when I'm tired
And gobble up samples in shops and press alarm bells
And run my stick along the public railings
And make up for the sobriety of my youth.
I shall go out in my slippers in the rain
And pick the flowers in other people's gardens
And learn to spit.


You can wear terrible shirts and grow more fat
And eat three pounds of sausages at a go
Or only bread and pickle for a week
And hoard pens and pencils and beermats and things in boxes.


But now we must have clothes that keep us dry
And pay our rent and not swear in the street
And set a good example for the children.
We must have friends to dinner and read the papers.


But maybe I ought to practice a little now?
So people who know me are not too shocked and surprised
When suddenly I am old, and start to wear purple.

Buyers Remorse: Will Tata Rue the Purchase of Jaguar and Land Rover?

I spent a good portion of last week sifting through various articles about Tata’s purchase of the Jaguar and Land Rover marks from Ford. I was quite disappointed in what I read, mainly due to a lack of depth in analysis. Most of the articles I read extolled the virtues of Tata’s acquisition - hailing it as a wonderful play into the luxury segment of the market, or applauding Tata’s ambition in trying to become a truly global automaker.

I, quite frankly, think that this deal is destined to fail (I’ll come back to that in a minute).

For Ford, by contrast, this is an unambiguously good (and timely) outcome. In fact, that they received anything greater than $0 is remarkable to me. I wouldn’t have been surprised to see Ford pay someone to take both firms off their hands in much the same way that Daimler paid Cerberus to take Chrysler (see Divorced). Ford, after all, is a struggling giant, trying to do the best it can to survive in a competitive, mature, and low-margin industry. After a valiant effort and many attempts over the years, they could just not make Jaguar or Land Rover consistently profitable (although LR was marginally profitable on an operating basis this past year). The cost structure of Jaguar and LR (from a labor rate standpoint), their liabilities (from a pension perspective), and the demand for their products (with tired designs and out of favor models) were untenable for Ford in the long run. Ford really had no other option but to abandon ship.

That notwithstanding, Ford executives should be jumping for joy that they finally rid themselves of these two money pits, and ecstatic that someone actually paid them for the privilege.

For Tata, while bold, the deal just doesn’t make much sense. Aside from several luxury brands, an increased global presence, and some notoriety, I’m not sure what Tata gains. For example:

  1. Where’s the synergy? Can Tata and Jaguar/LR share components, design, production, dealerships, or management? On its face, the synergies are just not there. But perhaps the investment was made for learning purposes, with Tata hoping to use Jaguar/LR capabilities to improve the quality and/or image of their existing automobiles. Possibly.
  2. Can Tata rationalize Jaguar/LR’s production to make them more profitable? Actually, they cannot. They made pledges not to cut staff or close plants. And it’s unlikely that they would be able to reduce costs substantially by sourcing parts and supplies from India.
  3. Can Tata right a ship that larger, more experienced, more formidable competitors had been unable to? In Jaguar and Land Rover, Tata is inheriting pieces of the old British Leyland Motors (Jaguar, Rover, Austin, Morris, etc.) that all tolled experienced (and continues to experience) more than 40 years of uncompetitiveness and underperformance. Quite simply, they are inheriting a lot of baggage (see Riding the Elephant for more background on British Leyland). It will be difficult for Tata to overcome this tremendous inertia.

Some analysts have argued that Jaguar and Land Rover were purchased on the cheap (at $2.3B minus $600M that Ford is throwing in to offset pension liabilities), and at the right time - when both Jaguar and Land Rover have a stable of new models about to hit the market (e.g., the Jaguar XF and the Land Rover LRX). These analysts point out that if these new models hit it big, it will make Tata’s acquisition look like a steal. However, this assumes that Tata can revive flagging sales at Jaguar and Land Rover in the middle of a downturn. Likewise, it assumes that Tata, by simply owning the brands, will not dilute their image. Finally, it assumes that the Jaguar and/or Land Rover brands can be revived after years of neglect and consumer dissatisfaction, and that consumers will once again be interested in buying relatively expensive, gas-guzzling cars and SUV’s (especially in the case of LR).

For all these reasons, I remain skeptical. In fact, I think this deal is DOA. The only question in my mind is how long before the Jaguar and Land Rover glide path to extinction.

Update: The Sirius-XM Merger

Wow. I don’t know how many of you saw the news, but just today, the U.S. Department of Justice gave regulatory clearance for the Sirius-XM deal to move forward (see XM Satellite, Sirius Combination Approved). As Bloomberg reports:

There wasn’t enough evidence the merger “would substantially lessen competition or harm consumers,” he [Thomas Bennet, the Justice Department’s antitrust chief] said.

I agree with the DOJ on this one. As I wrote back in March of last year (see my original post The Sirius-XM Merger),

…they [Sirius/XM] do face substantial competition, not in the form of competitors in their existing space, but in the form of substitutes. They face threats from HD radio, traditional radio, iPod connectivity, internet streaming, etc. So this…will put a ceiling on their pricing power.

Not only that, but I thought the deal made sense because

there are some real cost saving opportunities to this merger. The synergies are real and tangible. Not only do the firms have the ability to economize on administrative costs (e.g., why do we need two sets of management to run these firms), but there are some obvious synergies in production (e.g., why do we need two sets of alternative rock stations when one will suffice).

…it [also] adds value for customers. Exclusivity contracts negotiated by these separate firms locked-in consumers. For example, fans of Major League Baseball were forced to choose XM while fans of Howard Stern only had Sirius as an option. Combining the firms allows fans of both to resolve issues of which service to choose…consumers who have chosen to wait for the uncertainty to resolve over which service would become the standard because they did not like having to choose between two options that are second-best (e.g., I want both Howard Stern and MLB, but I won't choose until things get resolved) will no longer have to agonize over the decision of which service to select. With Sirius and XM merged…more consumers will likely opt for satellite radio.”

Although I initially extolled the virtues of this deal, I thought it would face some tough regulatory challenges. In fact, while I agree with the DOJ’s decision, this is not to say I wasn’t not surprised by it. In a subsequent post (see Lessons for Sirius from Whole Foods) I wrote:

Sirius could stand to learn a few things from the government's initial reaction to the Whole Foods deal, whose case rests on similar justifications. If we can infer anything from the Whole Foods case, it is probably high time for Sirius to give up its pursuit of XM. Given Sirius' stock price performance since Karmazin's appearance before the House Judiciary Committee Antitrust Task Force on February 28 (from nearly $3.75 to $2.75), it seems the market already has.

Boy did I miss the boat on that one. I thought this deal was all but left for dead. I can’t help but wonder what brought about the change in sentiment on the part of the DOJ.

All that stands in the way of this marriage now is the approval of the FCC. Given the DOJ’s decision, I would be surprised if this deal were blocked at this point by Kevin Martin and the FCC.

But then again, for strategy folks like me, the real fun will begin after all the regulatory approvals fall into place - when the deal finally gets done. Then the integration scrutiny begins…

Rescue for Bear or Bailout for JP Morgan?

I know, I know, not another Bear Stearns article, right? I don’t know about you, but my eyeballs have gone crazy lately scanning headline after headline and reading article after article about the Bear belly flop and the JP Morgan bargain basement acquisition.

I’m so over it. So hopefully this is the last I’ll ever mention it.

With so much written about the topic, I was fairly convinced that someone would write a story exploring the following angle; however, I haven’t found any such article. So I’ll just throw this out there for consideration. Much of it will be speculation based on rumor and innuendo, but I think that we haven’t fully followed this path of reasoning - and I think it’s important.

Unfortunately, most of what I’ve read so far in the popular press either details Bear’s demise, praises JP Morgan’s (and Jamie Dimon’s) shrewd acquisition, or discusses the Fed’s reaction to the whole mess. Fairly little has been written about what this means for JP Morgan and why JP Morgan likely felt compelled to purchase Bear. And like Steve Randy Waldman at Interfluidity suggests, I think this acquisition raises more questions than answers (see More Questions than Answers on Bear).

But one question that has been answered unsatisfactorily in my opinion is why JP Morgan might want Bear in the first place. OK, so here’s my theory:

I’ve always firmly believed that in order to understand the behavior of economic actors (be they firms or individuals), one must understand their incentives. With that in mind then, we have to ask what JP Morgan’s incentives were to acquire Bear.

Much has been written about how JP Morgan was looking to acquire businesses in which Bear was strong (e.g., prime brokerage), and some even maintain that JP Morgan was looking to buy a regional bank.

This may be, but I believe that there is another explanation that has been little explored because, quite frankly, the data that would allow one to gauge this motivation are not publicly available.

Specifically, I believe that JP Morgan acquired Bear because they stood to lose the most from a Bear Stearns bankruptcy. For example, as Barry Ritholtz of the Big Picture points out (see here), JP Morgan has the greatest derivative exposure of any of the I-Banks. Now, I do not know how much of that exposure was to Bear Stearns as the counterparty, but I bet it was a fair amount (in fact, see Jesse’s Cafe Americain for information on Bear’s credit derivative exposure).

If Bear were the counterparty (insurer) to JP Morgan on much of its mortgage-backed security portfolio, it then becomes transparent why JP Morgan had to step in. They would have had to step in to avoid a Bear bankruptcy so that they would not be forced to take toxic assets back onto their own balance sheet and avoid massive write-downs. Were JP’s exposure to Bear large enough, then JP Morgan itself could have been left significantly impaired.

This might also explain the Fed’s interest in Bear. For example, if it were only Bear at risk and their exposure was spread relatively evenly across counterparties such that many of the big, primary banks were not at risk as a result, the Fed would have had no interest in this event. Instead, it would have just let Bear fail. But the Fed could not let Bear bring down JP Morgan with it. So it stepped in to orchestrate an orderly wind-down of Bear while facilitating its acquisition by JP Morgan.

But this still doesn’t explain why JP Morgan ended up with a relatively “cheap” price for Bear. Here is the second part of my theory. Namely, that Bear was into JP Morgan so deep (on the bad side of so many counterparty trades with them), that the Fed effectively negotiated a price that would have made Bear more or less whole on its obligations to JP Morgan. This too could explain why many other suitors dropped out so early in the process - because the Fed was not prepared to offer the same deal to those other “interested” buyers.

So for Bear’s sins, JP Morgan gets the pieces of Bear’s businesses that it would have liked to acquire in the market someday; it acquires some talented bankers; it gets a building (Bear’s headquarters) that is worth considerably more than the total price paid for the acquisition; and it gets the Fed to backstop the toxic parts of Bear’s assets (up to $30 Billion - fairly generous).

All in all not a bad deal if you’re JP Morgan (as many have pointed out), and maybe exactly what they deserved if Bear truly “owed” them as much as I suspect they might have.

But in the end, the whole episode certainly makes you wonder whether the Fed’s move represents a rescue of Bear or an effective bailout of JP Morgan.

All Fool


It really embarrassed me when I found this news from Ran's blog.

Minutes ago, I was totally a patriot, trying hard to strike back to those who hated China, who wanted to fuck us Chinese.

Now I feel like a dyed-in-the-wool idiot when I noticed that maybe what they want to fuck is The Communist Party of China.

I felt so angry when I know that a French journalist showed a black flag pictured with 5 handcuffs when the Chinese were trying to obtain The Olympic Flame from the site of the ancient Olympics, I thought they INSULTED US CHINESE.

How dare the stupid French insult us in such a sacred ceremony? They burnt our Royal Garden, went off with our most precious artworks, now the robber want to ruin our Olympics!

"He made a hit from this "brave" action just because he hated China and he pleased the public with claptrap to cater for the Anti-China Forces, then he could get promotion and make a killing", I got this conclusion naturally.

The official Xinhua news agency think what I thought makes sense, so they took the similar opinion to the public.

They said that the Olympics should not be politicised, it's ridiculous to threaten to boycott the Olympics.
But they do, they have changed the Game into a comprehensive eulogistic ceremony to the System. I was so bored with what they have done to guarantee this ceremony before I heard so many innocent people were brutally killed by the mother-fucker Tibetan mobs.

I know how stupid I was, so I wrote these above to get criticized, but there are still more donkeys in the world than I thought.


I still think the local Tibetan government should give those self-righteous monks a lesson, they are too naive and now they lose any possible sympathy from the inner citizens.

They thought their friends will help, but how many friend they need to meet the whole nation's angry?
They thought they have declared their independence in 1913, but who recognised? Even the British, who was then at the summit of its power, who initially instigated their stupid independence didn't think it's a great idea to provoke the weak Chinese into a brutal civil war.

It means a war, understand?
It means you will die, understand?
You damn Serfowner!

Lai mot ngay nua troi qua.......



Ngay hon nay that la cang thang qua,Cai do an nay lam Minhton tho mat.oi!met moi qua,thiet ke mai ma khong xong?Met moi that.Minh sap phat dien len mat.Hom truoc Ban MInh cho Minh muon mot to bao"Blog trai tim"That buon vi Minh chua kip doc ma da khong rhay dau roi ?BUon qua di mat Minh tim mai nhung khogn thay dau ...chan het cho noi.Nhuc het ca dau...Met qua,troi oi.