Tuesday, April 1, 2008

Another Great Way to Promote Thrift: Free Books [Open Source CU - Home] [The Banktastic Credit Union Feed]

I just signed up for a service called WOWIO. Don't panic, it's not another blog/microblog/social network. WOWIO is an ebook seller (giver, actually). You sign up for an account and download the books free and legally.

Who pays for it? WOWIO's model is for sponsors to pay for a run of an ebook that will be offered as a free download to WOWIO's users. In return the sponsor gets to tastefully bookend each file with their logo and sponsorship message.

Types of sponsorships include:
  • A profile-targeted sponsorship (age, gender, etc.)
  • A category-targeted sponsorship (Business, Comics, etc.)
  • A non-targeted sponsorship ("run-of-network")

This weekend I downloaded Winsor McKay's Dream of the Rarebit Fiend (I highly recommend it, but I'd point you toward his Little Nemo in Slumberland series first. Absolute magic. Not available on WOWIO.). The book was sponsored by Verizon Wireless. This is what I saw when I opened the file:

Page 1

The text reads: "Verizon Wireless is proud to sponsor this ebook for Charlie Trotter. Verizon Wireless proudly sponsors free books for free minds."

Page 2

This is a video ad for their VCast feature that, classily enough, I can choose to play or not play. Well played! (I didn't actually play it.)

Last page

The text reads: "Verizon Wireless is proud to have sponsored this ebook for you. If you would like to know more about our company, or our products and services, please visit us online at www.verizonwireless.com."

This is so tastefully done it makes me glad I'm already a customer of theirs. I'm also glad to see them aligning themselves with he idea of people expanding their minds with books and sponsoring an effort to get me those books free.

This model is right up the credit union's core value alley: promoting thrift. It would be bang-on for a credit union to look into a sponsorship and have their brand aligned with providing people with free books.

Just a thought.

Bear Stearns, One Day to Oblivion


Earnings reports from Goldman Sachs, Lehman Brothers and Morgan Stanley have appeased market concerns. With this in mind, one has to wonder if Bear Stearns could have lasted another day, how might its shares have recovered.

(Stocks in article: NYSE: BSC, NYSE: GS, NYSE: LEH, NYSE: V, NYSE: FNM, NYSE: FRE, NYSE: VZ, NYSE: DFS, NYSE: MS, NYSE: TMA)

With Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS), Lehman Brothers (NYSE: LEH) and Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) all reporting EPS that were better than analyst expectations, one has to wonder where Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC) might have been today. Late last week, Bear moved its earnings report forward to Monday from its Thursday scheduling, and it probably had the right idea. But, after its fire sale, it moved the report back out indefinitely.

Here's what's up. Bear probably had some decent news to report as well. Instead of worrying about scheduling, Bear should have focused on getting a press release together on Friday, and reported earnings before the weekend that ended up fostering its downfall. The sense of urgency should have been there, and its clear that they understood it since they moved the earnings report forward to Monday. Over the weekend though, the Fed likely strong-armed and scared Bear's management into a deal for the sake of the financial system. Meanwhile, BSC shareholders got screwed over.

With 30% of the shareholder ownership controlled by employees, we suspect shareholders would be well-advised to now shoot down the deal that is stripping them of their pants, and show who the real boss is. What's left to lose anyway... The downside is not much, another two bucks!

There were a lot of bonehead decisions that came to play in this one, all of which were driven by fear. First and foremost, someone started and spread a destructive rumor that turned Bear from Wall Street pillar to pariah overnight. The fifth largest giant on Wall Street was chopped up for less than the building that housed it. Of course, any buyer of Bear has to bear it's risks, and thus the reasoning for the blockbuster price.

Even so, Bear's shares are trading well-above the deal price, and that usually indicates the strong expectation of a competing offer. CNBC has openly called that possibility into doubt, saying that Fed intervention effectively killed it. They offered possibility that debt holders are buying shares to insure the shareholder vote swings their way.

However, the New York Post published an article today that says Bear Chairman Jimmy Cayne and significant shareholder, Joe Lewis, are doing their best to ressurrect their lost boatload of capital. The article, also summarized at Reuters, says the two have approached some significant private equity and banking capital... like the kind that could be moving BSC shares higher. We would go so far as to say the buying is either coming from existing shareholders or these newly approached White Knights. The Greek suspects the Bear Stearns story has not come to the nascent tragic end that was first reported.

A lot of folks are angry that the Fed even acted at all, and we want to outline why they did for you. Bear Stearns was highly levered in positions that threatened spreading the company's disease throughout capital markets. At the same time, an unstable Bear, meant investors in Bear's asset management vehicles might draw significant capital due to the prisoner's dilemma.

The prisoner's dilemma is when two criminals agree not to implicate each other and to claim innocence. In the situation, if both prisoners stay quiet, they both go free. However, if one rats out the other, and the other stays quiet, one goes to prison and the rat goes free. If both prisoners lose their cool, they both go to prison. Thus, the dilemma. What will the other guy say in isolation...

Investors in Bear Stearns managed portfolios might keep the capital in play, but if other investors drew capital in significant numbers, the funds would have to liquidate holdings, pressuring the investments held through significant forced sales. As a result, even loyal investors would get nervous and sell as well. The activity could spill over into other securities and other portfolios might also start selling off. In other words, there existed potential to trigger a mass selloff in the entire market. This is just one reason why the Fed intervened.

That's not going to appease the only loser, Bear Stearns shareholders. Considering the whole spark of the turmoil might have been a false rumor, the government might be wise to correct the situation. It's been rumored that the Fed scolded bankers not to spread false rumors about their competitors, and that seems to imply the possibility of that occurance in this instance. We have no information to help place blame, but we welcome it if a reader has an idea. Comment to this article anonymously if you like, and help us shed light on who might be to blame. The SEC would like to know also...

Bear Stearns shareholders, say a prayer. You still have a chance to recover some wealth. We feel for you here at The Greek.

(disclosure)

green Easter goodies

Don't spend hard-earned green unnecessarily – I was stunned to learn that, according to the National Retail Federation, $14 billion will be spent on Easter in the U.S. this year. But just for kicks, here are some tasty, kitschy, cool green finds...
Submitted by Maureen O. to Green Lifestyle  |   Note-it!  |   Add a Comment

Reign of Poor Economic Data Pours On


Today's economic data releases offered nothing but bad news, but what's a little more water when you are already soaking wet.

(Stocks in article: NYSE: TM, NYSE: F, NYSE: GM, NYSE: M, NYSE: TLB, XETRA: VOW.DE, Nasdaq: HYMTF.PK, Nasdaq: ERTS, Nasdaq: TTWO, NYSE: TGT, Nasdaq: NSRGY, NYSE: WM, AMEX: SPY, AMEX: DIA, Nasdaq: QQQQ, AMEX: SDS, AMEX: DOG, AMEX: QLD)

The dollar continued to slide yesterday and this morning, and global markets were none too pleased. ECB President Trichet, who I thought was a venereal disease until recently, was caught this morning criticizing "disorderly currency moves," calling them "undesirable." Sorry about that Jean-Claude, but what did you expect after you kept rates steady last week? vou vou vou...

After this is all said and done, Trichet could come out looking worse than Bernanke. Critics will argue that he had clearer signs of economic deterioration to act upon than Bernanke, including the very important lead evidence in the U.S. economic data. America is still too important a market for developed Europe, which contrasts to the situation in Asia where developing domestic consumption is driving sustainable growth.

Trichet is keeping up the inflation fight, so perhaps one of these two is destined to come out looking like the genius and the other the fool. Which do you think is the fool? Comment at the bottom of the article (at the site for email readers).

Economic Data & Analysis

Retail Sales

Monthly retail sales for February surprised even us this morning. The report showed sales fell 0.6% from January, versus expectations for growth of 0.2%. We expected the metric to show growth as well, since weekly ICSC same-store figures had improved over the month. So, this seems to indicate that retailers are reeling in growth of new stores and possibly closing a bunch of existing locations. That would coincide with the employment report, which showed the retail sector shedding jobs almost as quickly as manufacturing and construction. We've already noted the store closings at Macy's (NYSE: M), Talbots (NYSE: TLB) and others. Expect that trend to expand as some of the poorer running chains still grew during the drunken shopping spree of the last forever years.

Detroit readers should be interested to know that excluding autos, retail sales fell just 0.2%. In other words, cars still ain't sellin. Good news came from VW (XETRA: VOW.DE) though, with a report that the automaker is actually considering setting up a new plant in the U.S. The Greek knows a couple guys that might be interested in selling one or two of those things, Ford (NYSE: F) and General Motors (NYSE: GM). And get a load of this, Toyota (NYSE: TM) is actually concerned that the rising yen might impact its profits and the competitiveness of its prices versus Korean counterparts like Hyundai Motors (Nasdaq: HYMTF.PK). How about that about face...

If you're digging for good news, health and personal care stores saw a sales increase of 0.5%. Health care is still safe to invest in until the general election campaigning begins in earnest and the Democratic nominee emerges as the leader. Efforts to bring Socialist like health care to all, which by the way, as a noncorporate citizen, I benefit from, should cut profits for health care providers and drug developers and producers. In other words, if you elect the Robin Hood of health care, you had better also sell the sector and send me some money as well. There's one group I like though in the sector no matter what, but I'm not leaking it ahead of my portfolio introduction. Ha ha...

Weekly Initial Unemployment Claims

At 353K, weekly jobless claims matched the prior week measure. Well, at least the rate of addition of newly unemployed didn't deteriorate. There's not much more to say about that. However, let's consider how bogus the 4.8% unemployment rate is. Nonfarm payrolls decrease two months in a row and unemployment improves? Okay... The excuse, or wording, for how and why this occurred is that some people left the workforce. Right... And why did they leave the workforce? It was not because they all won the lottery.

It was more likely because they couldn't find jobs before their unemployment benefits ran out. So, now they're out there still unemployed and also unaccounted for, while still facing monthly bills, and while still underwater in mortgage and other debt. Yeah, that's a healthy situation... So, if you read anywhere that the unemployment rate change was a positive, think again.

Signs of rising unemployment could be seen in today's report that foreclosures rose 60% in February, versus the same period of 2007. However, don't get scared by the big headline every single media outlet made sure to highlight and exaggerate today. In fact, the rate of increase is decreasing, since bad numbers from the prior year are finally getting lapped. The rate should continue to improve as the months progress, unless of course unemployment increases substantially or the price of bread reaches $10. Great, but both of those things seem possible, or dare we say likely?

Import Prices

Finally some good news. Import prices rose just 0.2% in February. But wait! Excluding petroleum price change, prices actually rose 0.6%! Holy expensive guacamole Batman! Mrs. Consumer, you better be worried this number. It means commodity prices are making there way through the system of manufacturers, distributors and retailers to you. The technical term on the Street for this is, "pass through." Yep, and right to you. How's that hot potato...?

You can support "The Greek" by supporting our advertisers. Thank you. (disclosure)

Women at work...men at home [HerMoney] [The Banktastic FI Feed]

Leo Burnett Chicago (one of the top 10 ad agencies in the world) released their annual list of 8 trends from their "futures" division this past week. One "future" prediction caught my eye (of course):

"…Gender Reversal. Men's increasing role within the family and more women at the office will change the advertising context. Expect to see more campaigns aimed at women at work and men in the home…"

There it was; right up there with all of the "social media" stuff. Of course, ad agencies are known to put out a lot of "predictions". It's their business. But this one is backed up by tons of research that is hard to refute. I have the feeling that this prediction evloved from Burnett's Man Study, published (way) back in 2005.

I believe Michael Silverstein (Boston Consulting Group) said it best in a landmark piece from the New York Times by Mickey Meece (way) back in late 06 when he stated:

"…We are perhaps on the first step to a matriarchal society; women will earn more money than men if current trends continue by 2028. The trend has been escalating in the past 10 years as there has been a gradual, slow erosion of the power balance in the family, a psychic rebalancing..."

Silverstein's description of this "gender shift" remains the best observation of what has and will happen with respect to this subject. If you read between the lines of Burnett's Man Study you will notice that, at the very least, our culture is undergoing a dramatic evolution to a more "feminine" culture (especially with the X/Y generations). That should have dramatic consequences for the "financial services" industry.

Think about it…what do you think?